Sunday 10 May 2015

Hamiltons watched on as Conservatives held off UKIP charge in target seat

Boston and Skegness stayed Tory blue in the end, with Matt Warman replicating his party's strong performance across the country and taking the seat with a 4,336 majority.

Matt Warman delivers a victory speech at 6.30am

It was a long old night at the Peter Paine Sports Centre in Boston; the eight-and-a-half-hour count took its toll on a bleary eyed Neil and Christine Hamilton, who were denied the chance to celebrate with their young protege - the 22-year-old Robin Hunter Clarke failing to capture the seat despite a 15.1 per cent swing to his party.

When the Hamiltons turned up at about 12.30am, the night was young and many predicted a tight race that could've seen politics' odd-couple celebrating. Christine was all smiles - ruffling the hair of a couple of policemen and mingling while Neil gave interviews to the press, who latched on the chance to fill the 'there's nothing happening' void with some material.

Neil Hamilton came to support his young protege...but would he have done better?
Still, the smiles soon faded as the war of attrition set in. We waited and waited, restlessly shifting from the 'press room' to the TV and back into the counting hall as it became clear this was going to be a slog. The count itself didn't begin until just before 2am thanks to some delayed papers from the Skegness end of the constituency which delayed the verification process.
It proved a long and fruitless night for the Hamiltons
The long hours not only sapped away at the energy but also the chances of a UKIP win - more and more senior Tories re-iterated that they fancied a win - with predictions ranging from 2,000-6,000. Like the 10pm exit poll that shocked the country, they were spot on. Yet it was 6.30am before the result, which by then had become inevitable, was confirmed.

Warman, the now ex head of technology at the Daily Telegraph, proved a solid contender for the party after emerging from a fairly closely contested primary. He did enough to convince the party's traditional supporters - which are especially strong in number in the villages - to stick with the Tories after a somewhat fractious end to his predecessor's time as MP.

Mark Simmonds may have earned a 12,426 majority in 2010 but by last year relations had soured with local Tories, who felt he neglected his constituency duties after becoming a junior foreign office minister. Many felt his resignation - and comments about the pay and conditions of an MP - were framed in a way to 'get back' at his critics. Of course we may never know what Simmonds truly felt since he turned down several offers of an interview with the local press. He still lives in the area and I'm told he did vote for his replacement and offer him support.

Still, senior Conservatives in the town feel that if he had been on the ballot paper on Thursday UKIP would've won.

So, if the right name was on the ballot for the Tories, was it for UKIP? It was certainly a bold move to install a 22-year-old candidate to such a high profile target seat, especially given that it had, from the outside, appeared to have been Neil Hamilton's chosen location for a potential political comeback. Hamilton mysteriously pulled out of an in-house party hustings to pave the way for Robin so, I asked, did he think he'd have done better?
Hamilton said: "It's hard to say. I am a controversial figure on the one hand, but on the other hand I do have 50 years experience of fighting elections [he joined the Conservative party aged 15 in 1964] and I do have a war chest from supporters that could've helped my campaign. So, who knows?"
He did go on to praise the young runner-up though, saying the party 'couldn't have had a better candidate' and that he hoped Robin would fight again in five years time.

Robin Hunter-Clarke remained upbeat in his post-defeat interviews
Robin, a county councillor, says he aims to do just that. He believes the Conservatives 'played the SNP card' to great effect but says the result showed people were wrong to question his ability as a candidate.
He told me: "I am pleased with the result. We shaved thousands off their majority and saw the biggest swing to UKIP in the whole country - nobody can question my age or ability, I have proved myself.
"I have grown massively in confidence and have enjoyed every single second."
He was one of many people - Green candidate Victoria Percival included - to join the call for electoral reform, highlighting the fact that earning the third largest share of the national vote only earned UKIP one MP.

He added: "Clearly the electoral system is broken and needs to be fixed but I'm afraid turkeys don't vote for Christmas and the Conservatives won't change the system that's led them to victory."

He backed UKIP to work with other minority parties - an unlikely alliance with the Greens it seems! - to press the need for change.

The victorious Warman, however, said the electorate had had the chance to change the system with the AV referendum of 2011 and felt 'first past the post' was still the best way to deliver stable Governments.

The new MP laughed off my cheeky question about any potential job in the new Cameron administration - instead saying he intends to use his influence to get key figures to come to the constituency and address its issues.

There is a strong sense in Boston that it is 'forgotten' and while Warman feels some of that is a perception - pointing to the cash for a new flood barrier as an example - he accepts that there's some truth in it, especially when it comes to the need for 'big ticket infrastructure'.

As part of his campaign he brought Jeremy Hunt and Chris Grayling to the constituency. While that aimed to show voters that a Tory MP could have the ear of big hitters in the Government, he hopes it will be a blueprint to prove to voters that the area's issues are being heard.

It's a stark contrast to the bizarre visit of Andrew Lansley, the then-health minister, to the Pilgrim Hospital in Boston in 2012. He came on the invitation of Mark Simmonds but everything possible was done to give the press the slip - including changing the plan to take Lansley out of the building around the back to avoid us. Excuses, bizarrely, included that it was the London mayoral election and a minister couldn't talk to us as a result. When we later happened upon Lansley walking through the town, he was only too happy to give us a quick chat. Simmonds, it turned out, was lobbying for cash to replace the maternity unit and probably could've done with the public support he could've got by involving the press and public but he just wasn't that sort of MP; only later turning to the paper when bureaucrats failed to cash in on the support Lansley had given for the project.

Warman will need to be more open with voters and involve them in the politics he carries out from here - big name visits are fine but the ridiculous subterfuge of the Lansley visit must be avoided.
The hospital too, with the threat to some of its services, is a huge issue for him to get his teeth into.

Still, getting back to the night, and why did Warman think his party could prove the pollsters wrong and gain a majority?
He said: "Evidently there's an element of 1992 about it. What we have seen is that, when it came to the crucial moment at the ballot box, people have realised that the economy was too precious to risk and people realised that David Cameron was a far better option than Ed Miliband, and they also didn't want the SNP to prop up a Labour Government."
He wouldn't be drawn into comment on his defeated rivals, but felt his party offered more 'solutions' to the issues UKIP posed than any other, alongside a 'positive vision'.

So, how about leaving his job at the Telegraph? Many people, after all, would love to be at the front of the queue to test and talk about the latest technology as he has been.
He explained: "I came to the conclusion a few years ago that I wanted to be an actor and not a critic."
He said that issues such as Facebook privacy made him feel passionate but that: "If you really care about this stuff then the only way to make a difference is if you're not on the sidelines."
But what about technology when it comes to voting? Perhaps inspired by the marathon count I asked if he thinks we'll soon be voting and counting in a very different way?
He said: "It's very hard to come up with a more secure system than what we have at the moment. It might be old fashioned but it works. I am not romantic about this stuff but it's working and you should be very careful about replacing it with something that's risky."
So there we have it - we'll probably still be sitting there until 6.30am next time too but we shouldn't moan. For a journalist there's something enjoyable about count night. The atmosphere is like no other and it wouldn't quite be the same without the test of endurance that means you've still got to be able to ask key questions despite being half awake. Maybe Matt's right?

Full result:
Matt Warman (Conservative), 18,981, 43.8% (-5.7)
Robin Hunter-Clarke (UKIP), 14,645, 33.8% (+24.3)
Paul Kenny (Labour), 7,142, 16.5% (-4.2)
David Watts (Lib Dem), 1,015, 2.3% (-12.4)
Victoria Percival (Green), 800, 1.8%
Chris Pain (Independence From Europe), 324, 0.7%
Peter Johnson (Ind), 170, 0.4%
Lyn Luxton (Pilgrim Party), 143, 0.3%
Robert West (BNP), 119, 0.3% (-5)

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Of course it wasn't all positive for the Tories on Thursday night/Friday morning. The more hardcore of us among the press carried on until 10.30am when the final Boston Borough Council result came in. Not Sky, they buggered off as soon as they'd done their post-victory interview with Matt Warman - although hats off to them for arranging to install their own internet connection to the venue for the night, that's the sort of planning and resources local media could only dream of!

The results here were more exciting and close than the General Election race that came before. UKIP - which had no seats going into the vote - and the Tories were neck and neck throughout and ended on 13 seats apiece on the 30-seat council. It meant the Conservatives have lost overall control of the council, although, in an immediate twist, look to have already picked up one councillor who has fallen out with UKIP before even taking his seat. At 14-12 with two independents and two Labour members they should just about be able to carry on in charge - but not without a fair few headaches along the way.

With more cuts to come to local Government this could be a really testing time for the council going forward. It proves, too, that the UKIP surge in Boston cannot be written off.

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