Boston and Skegness is a key target seat for UKIP in next week's election. Nigel Farage has been saying so himself for quite some time. But will the party succeed? What makes it a target and what factors may affect the result?
Firstly, it's hard to deny that UKIP's success in Boston and Skegness has been astonishing. In the 2005 and 2010 General Elections it scored its highest and second highest share of the vote in the constituency. That proved to be the mere launchpad when, in 2013, the party pulled off a big result at the Lincolnshire County Council elections. The night began with six of Boston's seven seats in Conservative hands. I stood and watched as it ended with five of the seven in UKIP hands and just the one Tory remaining.
The surge didn't end there. Nowhere else in the country gave a higher support to UKIP in the European Parliament elections 12 months later. In total 52 per cent of the people who turned out to vote in Boston supported UKIP.
So, logically, the next stop is to elect an MP surely? Well, the first thing to stress is that it could happen. Aside from this, Boston itself has 'form' when it comes to kicking out ruling Tories, with the Boston Bypass Independents sweeping to a famous council victory in 2007. UKIP commissioned Survation to carry out a poll last year and it predicted the party could win 46% of the vote, with the Tories - who currently hold the seat with a near-12,500 majority - on 26%. A later poll for Lord Ashcroft, however, had the Tories holding onto the seat 38-35 over UKIP in second.
It's clear too, let's be honest, that UKIP's support has built up in Boston on the back of its focus on immigration. The foreign-born population in Boston rose by 467% between 2001 and 2011 according to Census data that is hotly disputed in the borough. Whatever you think about immigration - let's not go into that right now - it's clear that with those sheer numbers it is bound to be a talking point.
At one point issues surrounding immigration caused unrest among a significant minority in the town. An on-off 'protest march' movement eventually manifested itself as a static protest and it's fair to say that much of the frustration underpinning that has fed into UKIP's subsequent political success, even though this was not the work of the party. The local council's response to that sentiment in Boston was to hold an 'immigration inquiry' calling on witnesses from education, health, employment etc. It drew up a wish-list of proposals that were needed and the process was an attempt to show that it wasn't racist to talk about immigration while recognising that population growth had had an impact on services. To some extent the borough elections, also next Thursday, will be the voters' judgement on how successful the inquiry's eventual report has been.
But this isn't just a straightforward tale of 'anti-immigration vote equals UKIP victory'. It's too blinkered to see matters such as this in such simplistic terms. To an extent, I feel sorry for Boston. It has, in the past, been the 'bad traffic town' and the 'fat town' and now it's the 'immigration town'. It's forever labelled and, when it is, people often fail to look beyond the label. So, yes, immigration is a huge election topic - undeniably the biggest - yet there are other issues that will have a say in the outcome of this election.
Forgotten
Following on from the above, it's important not to forget that there is a strong sense among some Bostonians that they're forgotten. Whether it's by the Westminster elite when it comes to immigration, or at a more local level when it comes to being 'governed by Lincoln', these are pretty strong perceptions. Yes, you can read UKIP's county council surge as a protest vote if you like but don't ignore that part of that protest may well have been against County Hall. Lincoln is on its fourth bypass, Grantham is getting a bypass, Spalding is planning a second, even Burgh Le Marsh has one yet Boston's seems a long, long way off. It's unfair to put that at the door of one council - it's been a bugbear for decades - but ignore it at your peril. People in Boston are sick and tired of traffic issues. They once elected a party to tackle that and, although that went pear shaped, it shows they're prepared to air their dissatisfaction. Health - and the need to support the Pilgrim Hospital - education and flood risk are also big issues.
Constituency
This post has, to a large extent, centred on Boston but it's important to consider that the constituency isn't solely about Boston. It's the biggest town and draws the most attention but there's also Skegness - a seaside town with its own set of issues - and a host of villages in between and around the two. It remains to be seen whether UKIP will be as strong here, especially the villages which traditionally deliver a strong Tory vote.
Two votes
Perceived wisdom, for what it's worth, suggests that the fact it's a council election next Thursday too should boost turnout. The same train of thought would say that the higher the turnout the harder it is for the challenger to win. Turnout in the aforementioned Euro elections was a mere 33.3% - it won't be as low next Thursday. Of course there is always a danger that a disgruntled local election protester will take a chance to land a 'double blow' on their opponents too.
Age
What about the people actually standing? UKIP's charge is led by Robin Hunter-Clarke. The young Tory-turned-Ukipper might be seen by some as 'too young' at 22 to entrust with the responsibilities of the Commons - especially if he ends up part of a small group of MPs propping up a whole Government. It's a charge he dismisses and he might turn out to be a much safer bet than Neil Hamilton, who withdrew his bid to stand for election right at the last minute. UKIP's own polling showed people weren't too favourable to Hamilton and, while the Skegness born contender will need to convince people he has the right qualities and experience to succeed, he won't be forever facing questions on the past as Hamilton would've done.
Fresh face for Tories
A UKIP source told me they were delighted when incumbent Mark Simmonds said he was standing down. They felt it was easier to win a vacant seat than fight a familiar face on their own record. That's maybe true but there are some people in the town who had become less than enamoured with Mark Simmonds. The MP was originally denied a job under Cameron by the circumstances of the coalition but eventually got a post in the foreign office. Over time his relationship with the local Tories became strained and upon announcing his resignation Mr Simmonds bemoaned the 'intolerable' impact of trying to live with his family on the pay and expenses he received - something that caused a fair bit of a stir in the national press. He was offered a full interview to explain his comments to the electorate and chose not to bother. His replacement on the Tory ticket is the Daily Telegraph head of technology Matt Warman. In the circumstances an articulate and sensible fresh face might well do the Tories good. Those that would've voted for Mark Simmonds won't be put off by Matt Warman and some of those who had drifted away will return. Warman himself will benefit from having to win his nomination through a party primary, a good chance to sharpen his campaigning skills.
Packed field
It's easy to see this as a Tory-UKIP scrap but it's not. It's a nine-strong field which is bound to complicate matters. Labour's Paul Kenny is fighting for the third time. He'll be buoyed by the fact that in 1997 and 2001 this was a Labour/Tory marginal where the majority was below 1,000. He himself performed well as mayor, particularly prominently in the aftermath of the floods which hit the town in late 2013, and may have an appeal beyond the party as a result.
UKIP itself must contend with the challenge of Chris Pain. He led the party in Lincolnshire to its county council success before a bitter fallout with Farage and co which also saw other UKIP councillors leave the party. Chris Pain stood in 2010 for UKIP and is now under the banner of An Independence From Europe, itself launched by ex-UKIP member Mike Nattrass. The split had little or no impact in last year's Euro elections but it might eat into Robin Hunter-Clarke's vote here. Independent Peter Johnson, a former policeman, might well dilute the vote available to UKIP, occupying a 'none of the above' 'common sense' ground that the eurosceptic party likes to try to sit within.
The Tories may well lose some votes to Lyn Luxton. She wanted to win the party's nomination and, when not chosen to contest the primary, switched to the Lincolnshire Independents before founding her own Pilgrim Party. She'd done a lot of canvassing on the ground before being snubbed by the Tories and will hope that now bears fruit.
Victoria Percival promises to be a passionate exponent of the Green cause - and might surprise a few - while the BNP's Robert West is an often controversial character who is a veteran of various elections over the years.
Don't expect too much from the Lib Dem though. David Watts is the party's contender but you'd think he'll probably be busy defending his seat on Broxtowe Borough Council. Broxtowe, where I'm originally from incidentally, is run by a Lib-Lab coalition so it'll be a tight race. His selection shouts 'paper candidate' to me.
A close call
The electoral past of the last couple of years points towards UKIP doing very well but it's clear that some of the facts make this a far-from-straightforward seat to call. The circumstances of the vote - on the same day as the council election - the fact there are nine contenders with their own personal strengths and the existence of other issues affecting voters' choices beyond immigration all make for a much more complex picture. If the bookies know anything - and you don't often see a poor one - they reckon the Tories are now favourites again. All I know for sure is that it could be a long and dramatic night next Thursday. See you there.
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