Friday 20 March 2015

10 musings on Osborne's pre-election Budget

George Osborne has brandished his big red box for the final Budget of this coalition Government, delivering his all-important speech after the most well-worn photo opportunity in history (can't they think of something new?). His hour-long speech can't really be analysed outside of the context of the election, now less than 50 days away but was this speech in any way significant?

Here's 10 things I was left pondering in the aftermath:

Targets: I imagine if I decided to only pay half of my mortgage payments for the next few years the bank wouldn't be entirely satisfied if I blamed external factors and promised that I was definitely now back on track and 'walking tall' again. The simple fact is Osborne and the Tories promised far more than they could actually deliver when trying to win our votes five years ago. I don't buy this 'well we had a huge deficit to deal with' line either. I'm pretty sure the desperate state of the economy was known - and argued over - at the last election. George has delivered about half of his target to eliminate the deficit - a figure that was something he campaigned against at the last election. Still, it's churlish of Labour to criticise him too much for this since he's delivered the sorts of numbers they were planning to achieve if elected in 2010.

Banks: Osborne boasted about the fact Labour was the party that bailed out the banks while his party would get taxpayers' cash back by selling our stake now things had got better. I couldn't help but think this was a strange boast. Was the Chancellor saying he wouldn't have stepped in to prevent banks going out of business? Or was he praising the opposition - implying he was reaping the rewards of their decision. It certainly seemed a silly thing to say.

Gimmicks and giveaways: No gimmicks, no giveaways eh? Well, not unless you count the penny off a pint of beer, scrapping the paper tax return or the ISA for first time buyers. There were others too. Why say it when you know it's not true?

Good ideas: One of the problems with our political system is that our 'Government vs Opposition' format means the response to any Budget, or indeed any Government policy, has to be to oppose it. Labour may well have liked the Help To Buy ISA, say, and want to do that themselves but they don't feel they're able to say it. It means we treat every thing as a black and white 'right and wrong and ignore more sensible grey areas in the middle. Some have said the new ISA will simply encourage people to get into debt but those are probably not the people struggling to get onto the ladder. That money will be welcome to the people who can afford to pay off a mortgage but can't afford the up front cost and it isn't exactly a case of chucking away free money to people without requiring them to save some themselves. Raising the personal allowance on Income Tax will be welcome to many as will relief to savers who have suffered from low interest rates.

Pick your stats: Both parties have unearthed their own measure of 'standards of living' that prove we're either better or worse off than 2010. There's a surprise. You really can prove anything with statistics it seems. My favourite line is 'more people in work than ever before'...conveniently forgetting that there are also 'more people than ever before'.

Europe: It's often said that the crisis in the Eurozone was one of the things that served to delay the our recovery from the economic crisis. I wonder if, in any of the tables, graphs or sets of numbers produced in the last day, anyone has an accurate prediction for the impact on the Eurozone economy that our much-vaunted renegotiation might have? Just a thought...

Ideology: The Budget - and subsequent debate - did shine a light on a small point of difference, ideologically, between the main two parties. It's often feared that 'they're all the same' but, when it comes to the economy it's not quite true. The Tories think there's still scope for some fairly big cuts, largely in welfare, as they aim for a smaller-than-previously-promised surplus by the end of the next Parliament and larger cuts to debt. Labour would spend - and, yes, borrow - more and move towards a balanced budget much slower. Not that either of them like to being presented in such a simplistic way of course. Whether that's a clear enough difference to matter when it comes to votes is another matter and it'll be interesting to see what the Greens, UKIP etc come up with as an alternative given that they have the freedom to be more creative.

Cliches: Why are all families 'hard working families'? It's just one of a host of cliches that was littered through the speeches of both sides of the house. And is George really still peddling that awful 'we're all in this together' line?

Commons: The behaviour of MPs in the Commons never ceases to amaze. To see grown men and women shouting over each other and trading lame jokes and one liners is an unedifying spectacle and does nothing for the calls to increase the wages of MPs. They should sit back and watch the footage and be ashamed of themselves.

Papers: The day after a Budget is always a great time to grab a newspaper - particularly one of the 'serious' titles who produce big pullouts at short notice packed with analysis, case studies and the sort of detail the telly simply doesn't have time to go into. It must hard work but great to be a part of. I'm also impressed by the amount the i packed into its edition. You have to take your hat off to those involved. The mid range papers seemed to struggle in comparison - with the Mail sporting Osborne as the Teletubbies sun in a badly dated cultural reference and the Express going for something incredibly dull and formulaic. I'd not seen the latest Money Supermarket ad (unlike most of the population it seems) that inspired The Sun front page so was briefly baffled by the odd image of Osborne in a pair of shorts. I still don't think it's one of their better efforts. The serious papers came out even more favourably in comparison to some uninspired offerings - maybe the lack of a clear soundbite or theme gave those eager tabloid subs little to chew on?


No comments:

Post a Comment