Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Monday, 4 July 2016

How do we know what the electorate actually wanted from EU Leave vote?

Photo: Unsplash
Life very rarely throws up questions that have a black and white ‘yes/no’ choice does it? I can’t quite help think that this hasn’t helped with the EU referendum. With a question of such complexity and magnitude boiled down to one simplistic question, chaos was probably always likely.

I last blogged on the eve of the ballot. A lot has happened since hasn’t it? Yet one thing is clear, no-one really knows what to do next.

Whether I like it or not (and I’m still convinced that it’s a terrible decision) the electorate chose to Leave. The trouble was, while there is a mandate to negotiate an exit, it’s not clear what else there is a mandate for. What did the people actually vote for?

The black and white nature of a yes/no referendum also allows people to make sweeping and inaccurate statements about both camps. Remainers aren’t all whiners just as much as Leavers aren’t all racist. Yet, because the cap fits for some in those respective sides, others are tarred with the brush.

Some Leavers want a strangely very similar relationship to the EU to that we have now. Others want a Norway style deal, some are keen on a more distant position and others want us to be as far away as possible. Some won’t countenance ‘free movement’ of people, others are happier to accept this. All of this variation is under the umbrella of the ‘no’ in the yes/no vote... and that’s not even considering the shades of grey within those arguing for yes.

So, what do we do? Blunder along into a position that is bound to be unsatisfactory? That’s the way it seems. Consider this: a negotiation that adopts a Norway-style relationship is likely to upset the 48% who voted to Remain AND all of the most vehemently anti-EU elements of the Leave voters. The mandate suddenly becomes a little flimsy.

People like Boris Johnson certainly don’t have the answer. Having been royally shafted by his fellow Leaver Michael Gove, Johnson ducked out of the race. Yet, let’s face it, he had no idea how to implement the result he’d helped to win anyway. He’s probably relieved to be able to snipe from the sidelines rather than having to do anything, passing the poisoned chalice to a colleague in the process.

Gove is a man who regularly repeated the assertion that he doesn’t think he is up to the job and proved too toxic to run the Department for Education. I still don’t think he really wants it. He’s probably achieved what he wanted by dashing Boris’ dreams. A playground-style rivalry played out at the highest level.

It’s certainly a precarious position. David Cameron – having let loose a yes/no question to this tricky topic – is the lamest of lame ducks. A decision on Heathrow and a debate on Trident have been parked until his successor is named. Nothing, it seems, can be achieved until the politicians sort out their squabbles. A final failure that will surely define Cameron’s premiership.

Then there’s George Osborne. The Chancellor had failed to wipe out the deficit in five years of ‘the coalition’ as promised and now, post Brexit, says it won’t happen by 2020 either. His sole purpose destined to be left unachieved. He now seems to think that by repeating the phrase ‘I want to offer reassurance’ that people will actually feel reassured. Why not try giving us some words and ideas that are actually reassuring George? Is it because you’re keeping your powder dry in the hope of clinging on to a job?

And what to make of the mess on the opposition benches? Right now, in the country’s hour of need, there is no opposition and no Government. Cheers guys.

I know some people feel Jeremy Corbyn has been hard done to in recent days but I can understand why his parliamentary colleagues have lost faith in him. His performance during the referendum debate was poor. We’re told he’s a man that sticks to his principles and convictions yet you get the impression he is a Eurosceptic and is happy to leave. So, why not say that? Irrespective of that, the man doesn’t command enough of a party to form an effective opposition any more and has to go. It might not be nice but that’s politics.

I can understand why some people have chosen to march, demonstrate and protest. It seems ridiculous that others now say they shouldn’t do so having argued that they are ‘pro democracy’ during the referendum. The trouble is that I doubt there’s a consensus solution among the marchers about what they think should happen next either.

We’re left awaiting the result of the Conservative Party leadership election to see how we’ll go forward. The final two candidates will, at least, offer differing visions of the future relationship with the EU but it feels a little unsatisfactory that 150,000 party members will get to choose that vision (having had their ‘final two’ whittled down for them). Some grim irony given that we apparently voted to end the rule of unelected and unaccountable figures.

Maybe we should’ve been given a better range of choices in the referendum? Maybe we should never have had one in the first place, leaving the politicians we choose to represent us to make the tough decisions on our behalf? Maybe we should be given a chance to say whether we agree with the final deal thrashed out with the EU? Maybe we should all pretend this never happened in a very British way and try to move on? Maybe Remainers should just step back and hope things aren’t that bad? Maybe Johnson and Farage should’ve had the decency to see through what they started?


So many maybes, so few answers. We’ve said ‘no’ to a question that really wasn’t a yes/no problem and all it has done is throw up other more complex questions. Questions of the nature that probably should’ve been thrashed out before the vote instead of tawdry nonsense, spun statistics and guff written on buses.

Friday, 5 February 2016

The EU debate: Just get on with it

The Prime Minister's renegotiation of the UK's terms of membership in the EU is a waste of time. I say that not as an assessment of the 'deal', such as it is, but more because the reaction to it this week shows that, when it comes to this issue, people on both sides have stopped listening.

No matter what continental rabbit David Cameron pulled from his beret, the anti-mob were licking their lips at the chance to denounce it. Donald Tusk could have emerged from the talks with 'Britain is best' tattooed on his face humming God Save The Queen and agreeing to rename the EU as 'Britain's not-so-good neighbour' and the angriest of the doubters would have written it off.

Not that those at the head of the pro lobby have behaved much better. Many can't allow themselves to be aligned with the Prime Minister, their sworn enemy on other matters. They have to denounce the deal, lambast the PM, revel in his failure and then, ultimately, support his stance. Politics eh?

To be fair, maybe we're all right to be cynical. The PM is a slippery PR man who has achieved very little on this or practically anything else. Some people have stopped listening because they know not to believe a carefully choreographed word that spills from his mouth. He said, on the one hand, that he'd opt in to the EU on the terms he'd secured in the talks, but also stated that the detail was still to be decided, hinted that he wanted to earn more concessions and said he'd still rule nothing out. Lackey David Lidington then tried and failed to make sense of it all on Newsnight. It makes you dizzy trying to keep up with such a vacuous position.

This goes back to the problem above though. We all know that Cameron wants to campaign to stay in. We also know, pretty much, where most senior figures truly wish to sit in the EU debate. Yet, for some bizarre reason we're dancing around the houses pretending to wait for the detail of the deal.

One constant and clichéd point made in almost any edition of BBC's Question Tine is 'we need a proper debate on the EU'. The same is said on immigration. The problem is that this is said almost every week and almost always IN a debate on the two topics.

Yet the reason why it feels like we aren't getting a 'full and proper' debate is because it ends up getting lost amid a load of faffing about on if we should have a referendum, when we should have it and what the terms of the largely immaterial negotiation should be.

We all know the question - in or out. We all know that the supporters on both sides and for both campaigns have decided their positions, let's just get on with the crux of the matter.

PS - what exactly was the Mail on about this week? The splash on Thursday evoked a pre Second World War debate yet its article admitted the two times weren't comparable. It also admitted that by 'England' it meant the UK. Clear as mud. Given the Mail's position as an anti-EU paper surely the whole comment piece was really a job advert for the leader of the out campaign? It said it wanted a debate - that again - but really wants a champion for its cause. Settle back, there's surely plenty more of this overblown coverage coming ahead of the referendum this year. I don't know about you but I can't wait...