Hamiltons watched on as Conservatives held off UKIP charge in target seat

Boston and Skegness stayed Tory blue in the end, with Matt Warman replicating his party's strong performance across the country and taking the seat with a 4,336 majority.

Matt Warman delivers a victory speech at 6.30am

It was a long old night at the Peter Paine Sports Centre in Boston; the eight-and-a-half-hour count took its toll on a bleary eyed Neil and Christine Hamilton, who were denied the chance to celebrate with their young protege - the 22-year-old Robin Hunter Clarke failing to capture the seat despite a 15.1 per cent swing to his party.

When the Hamiltons turned up at about 12.30am, the night was young and many predicted a tight race that could've seen politics' odd-couple celebrating. Christine was all smiles - ruffling the hair of a couple of policemen and mingling while Neil gave interviews to the press, who latched on the chance to fill the 'there's nothing happening' void with some material.

Neil Hamilton came to support his young protege...but would he have done better?

Still, the smiles soon faded as the war of attrition set in. We waited and waited, restlessly shifting from the 'press room' to the TV and back into the counting hall as it became clear this was going to be a slog. The count itself didn't begin until just before 2am thanks to some delayed papers from the Skegness end of the constituency which delayed the verification process.

It proved a long and fruitless night for the Hamiltons

The long hours not only sapped away at the energy but also the chances of a UKIP win - more and more senior Tories re-iterated that they fancied a win - with predictions ranging from 2,000-6,000. Like the 10pm exit poll that shocked the country, they were spot on. Yet it was 6.30am before the result, which by then had become inevitable, was confirmed.

Warman, the now ex head of technology at the Daily Telegraph, proved a solid contender for the party after emerging from a fairly closely contested primary. He did enough to convince the party's traditional supporters - which are especially strong in number in the villages - to stick with the Tories after a somewhat fractious end to his predecessor's time as MP.

Mark Simmonds may have earned a 12,426 majority in 2010 but by last year relations had soured with local Tories, who felt he neglected his constituency duties after becoming a junior foreign office minister. Many felt his resignation - and comments about the pay and conditions of an MP - were framed in a way to 'get back' at his critics. Of course we may never know what Simmonds truly felt since he turned down several offers of an interview with the local press. He still lives in the area and I'm told he did vote for his replacement and offer him support.

Still, senior Conservatives in the town feel that if he had been on the ballot paper on Thursday UKIP would've won.

So, if the right name was on the ballot for the Tories, was it for UKIP? It was certainly a bold move to install a 22-year-old candidate to such a high profile target seat, especially given that it had, from the outside, appeared to have been Neil Hamilton's chosen location for a potential political comeback. Hamilton mysteriously pulled out of an in-house party hustings to pave the way for Robin so, I asked, did he think he'd have done better?

Hamilton said: "It's hard to say. I am a controversial figure on the one hand, but on the other hand I do have 50 years experience of fighting elections [he joined the Conservative party aged 15 in 1964] and I do have a war chest from supporters that could've helped my campaign. So, who knows?"

He did go on to praise the young runner-up though, saying the party 'couldn't have had a better candidate' and that he hoped Robin would fight again in five years time.

Robin Hunter-Clarke remained upbeat in his post-defeat interviews

Robin, a county councillor, says he aims to do just that. He believes the Conservatives 'played the SNP card' to great effect but says the result showed people were wrong to question his ability as a candidate.

He told me: "I am pleased with the result. We shaved thousands off their majority and saw the biggest swing to UKIP in the whole country - nobody can question my age or ability, I have proved myself.
"I have grown massively in confidence and have enjoyed every single second."

He was one of many people - Green candidate Victoria Percival included - to join the call for electoral reform, highlighting the fact that earning the third largest share of the national vote only earned UKIP one MP.

He added: "Clearly the electoral system is broken and needs to be fixed but I'm afraid turkeys don't vote for Christmas and the Conservatives won't change the system that's led them to victory."

He backed UKIP to work with other minority parties - an unlikely alliance with the Greens it seems! - to press the need for change.

The victorious Warman, however, said the electorate had had the chance to change the system with the AV referendum of 2011 and felt 'first past the post' was still the best way to deliver stable Governments.

The new MP laughed off my cheeky question about any potential job in the new Cameron administration - instead saying he intends to use his influence to get key figures to come to the constituency and address its issues.

There is a strong sense in Boston that it is 'forgotten' and while Warman feels some of that is a perception - pointing to the cash for a new flood barrier as an example - he accepts that there's some truth in it, especially when it comes to the need for 'big ticket infrastructure'.

As part of his campaign he brought Jeremy Hunt and Chris Grayling to the constituency. While that aimed to show voters that a Tory MP could have the ear of big hitters in the Government, he hopes it will be a blueprint to prove to voters that the area's issues are being heard.

It's a stark contrast to the bizarre visit of Andrew Lansley, the then-health minister, to the Pilgrim Hospital in Boston in 2012. He came on the invitation of Mark Simmonds but everything possible was done to give the press the slip - including changing the plan to take Lansley out of the building around the back to avoid us. Excuses, bizarrely, included that it was the London mayoral election and a minister couldn't talk to us as a result. When we later happened upon Lansley walking through the town, he was only too happy to give us a quick chat. Simmonds, it turned out, was lobbying for cash to replace the maternity unit and probably could've done with the public support he could've got by involving the press and public but he just wasn't that sort of MP; only later turning to the paper when bureaucrats failed to cash in on the support Lansley had given for the project.

Warman will need to be more open with voters and involve them in the politics he carries out from here - big name visits are fine but the ridiculous subterfuge of the Lansley visit must be avoided.
The hospital too, with the threat to some of its services, is a huge issue for him to get his teeth into.

Still, getting back to the night, and why did Warman think his party could prove the pollsters wrong and gain a majority?

He said: "Evidently there's an element of 1992 about it. What we have seen is that, when it came to the crucial moment at the ballot box, people have realised that the economy was too precious to risk and people realised that David Cameron was a far better option than Ed Miliband, and they also didn't want the SNP to prop up a Labour Government."

He wouldn't be drawn into comment on his defeated rivals, but felt his party offered more 'solutions' to the issues UKIP posed than any other, alongside a 'positive vision'.

So, how about leaving his job at the Telegraph? Many people, after all, would love to be at the front of the queue to test and talk about the latest technology as he has been.

He explained: "I came to the conclusion a few years ago that I wanted to be an actor and not a critic."
He said that issues such as Facebook privacy made him feel passionate but that: "If you really care about this stuff then the only way to make a difference is if you're not on the sidelines."

But what about technology when it comes to voting? Perhaps inspired by the marathon count I asked if he thinks we'll soon be voting and counting in a very different way?

He said: "It's very hard to come up with a more secure system than what we have at the moment. It might be old fashioned but it works. I am not romantic about this stuff but it's working and you should be very careful about replacing it with something that's risky."

So there we have it - we'll probably still be sitting there until 6.30am next time too but we shouldn't moan. For a journalist there's something enjoyable about count night. The atmosphere is like no other and it wouldn't quite be the same without the test of endurance that means you've still got to be able to ask key questions despite being half awake. Maybe Matt's right?

Full result:
Matt Warman (Conservative), 18,981, 43.8% (-5.7)
Robin Hunter-Clarke (UKIP), 14,645, 33.8% (+24.3)
Paul Kenny (Labour), 7,142, 16.5% (-4.2)
David Watts (Lib Dem), 1,015, 2.3% (-12.4)
Victoria Percival (Green), 800, 1.8%
Chris Pain (Independence From Europe), 324, 0.7%
Peter Johnson (Ind), 170, 0.4%
Lyn Luxton (Pilgrim Party), 143, 0.3%
Robert West (BNP), 119, 0.3% (-5)

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Of course it wasn't all positive for the Tories on Thursday night/Friday morning. The more hardcore of us among the press carried on until 10.30am when the final Boston Borough Council result came in. Not Sky, they buggered off as soon as they'd done their post-victory interview with Matt Warman - although hats off to them for arranging to install their own internet connection to the venue for the night, that's the sort of planning and resources local media could only dream of!

The results here were more exciting and close than the General Election race that came before. UKIP - which had no seats going into the vote - and the Tories were neck and neck throughout and ended on 13 seats apiece on the 30-seat council. It meant the Conservatives have lost overall control of the council, although, in an immediate twist, look to have already picked up one councillor who has fallen out with UKIP before even taking his seat. At 14-12 with two independents and two Labour members they should just about be able to carry on in charge - but not without a fair few headaches along the way.

With more cuts to come to local Government this could be a really testing time for the council going forward. It proves, too, that the UKIP surge in Boston cannot be written off.

Boston and Skegness: The anatomy of a UKIP target seat

Boston and Skegness is a key target seat for UKIP in next week's election. Nigel Farage has been saying so himself for quite some time. But will the party succeed? What makes it a target and what factors may affect the result?

Firstly, it's hard to deny that UKIP's success in Boston and Skegness has been astonishing. In the 2005 and 2010 General Elections it scored its highest and second highest share of the vote in the constituency. That proved to be the mere launchpad when, in 2013, the party pulled off a big result at the Lincolnshire County Council elections. The night began with six of Boston's seven seats in Conservative hands. I stood and watched as it ended with five of the seven in UKIP hands and just the one Tory remaining.

The surge didn't end there. Nowhere else in the country gave a higher support to UKIP in the European Parliament elections 12 months later. In total 52 per cent of the people who turned out to vote in Boston supported UKIP.

So, logically, the next stop is to elect an MP surely? Well, the first thing to stress is that it could happen. Aside from this, Boston itself has 'form' when it comes to kicking out ruling Tories, with the Boston Bypass Independents sweeping to a famous council victory in 2007. UKIP commissioned Survation to carry out a poll last year and it predicted the party could win 46% of the vote, with the Tories - who currently hold the seat with a near-12,500 majority - on 26%. A later poll for Lord Ashcroft, however, had the Tories holding onto the seat 38-35 over UKIP in second.

It's clear too, let's be honest, that UKIP's support has built up in Boston on the back of its focus on immigration. The foreign-born population in Boston rose by 467% between 2001 and 2011 according to Census data that is hotly disputed in the borough. Whatever you think about immigration - let's not go into that right now - it's clear that with those sheer numbers it is bound to be a talking point.

At one point issues surrounding immigration caused unrest among a significant minority in the town. An on-off 'protest march' movement eventually manifested itself as a static protest and it's fair to say that much of the frustration underpinning that has fed into UKIP's subsequent political success, even though this was not the work of the party. The local council's response to that sentiment in Boston was to hold an 'immigration inquiry' calling on witnesses from education, health, employment etc. It drew up a wish-list of proposals that were needed and the process was an attempt to show that it wasn't racist to talk about immigration while recognising that population growth had had an impact on services. To some extent the borough elections, also next Thursday, will be the voters' judgement on how successful the inquiry's eventual report has been.

But this isn't just a straightforward tale of 'anti-immigration vote equals UKIP victory'. It's too blinkered to see matters such as this in such simplistic terms. To an extent, I feel sorry for Boston. It has, in the past, been the 'bad traffic town' and the 'fat town' and now it's the 'immigration town'. It's forever labelled and, when it is, people often fail to look beyond the label. So, yes, immigration is a huge election topic - undeniably the biggest - yet there are other issues that will have a say in the outcome of this election.

Forgotten 
Following on from the above, it's important not to forget that there is a strong sense among some Bostonians that they're forgotten. Whether it's by the Westminster elite when it comes to immigration, or at a more local level when it comes to being 'governed by Lincoln', these are pretty strong perceptions. Yes, you can read UKIP's county council surge as a protest vote if you like but don't ignore that part of that protest may well have been against County Hall. Lincoln is on its fourth bypass, Grantham is getting a bypass, Spalding is planning a second, even Burgh Le Marsh has one yet Boston's seems a long, long way off. It's unfair to put that at the door of one council - it's been a bugbear for decades - but ignore it at your peril. People in Boston are sick and tired of traffic issues. They once elected a party to tackle that and, although that went pear shaped, it shows they're prepared to air their dissatisfaction. Health - and the need to support the Pilgrim Hospital - education and flood risk are also big issues.

Constituency
This post has, to a large extent, centred on Boston but it's important to consider that the constituency isn't solely about Boston. It's the biggest town and draws the most attention but there's also Skegness - a seaside town with its own set of issues  - and a host of villages in between and around the two. It remains to be seen whether UKIP will be as strong here, especially the villages which traditionally deliver a strong Tory vote.

Two votes
Perceived wisdom, for what it's worth, suggests that the fact it's a council election next Thursday too should boost turnout. The same train of thought would say that the higher the turnout the harder it is for the challenger to win. Turnout in the aforementioned Euro elections was a mere 33.3% - it won't be as low next Thursday. Of course there is always a danger that a disgruntled local election protester will take a chance to land a 'double blow' on their opponents too.

Age
What about the people actually standing? UKIP's charge is led by Robin Hunter-Clarke. The young Tory-turned-Ukipper might be seen by some as 'too young' at 22 to entrust with the responsibilities of the Commons - especially if he ends up part of a small group of MPs propping up a whole Government. It's a charge he dismisses and he might turn out to be a much safer bet than Neil Hamilton, who withdrew his bid to stand for election right at the last minute. UKIP's own polling showed people weren't too favourable to Hamilton and, while the Skegness born contender will need to convince people he has the right qualities and experience to succeed, he won't be forever facing questions on the past as Hamilton would've done.

Fresh face for Tories
A UKIP source told me they were delighted when incumbent Mark Simmonds said he was standing down. They felt it was easier to win a vacant seat than fight a familiar face on their own record. That's maybe true but there are some people in the town who had become less than enamoured with Mark Simmonds. The MP was originally denied a job under Cameron by the circumstances of the coalition but eventually got a post in the foreign office. Over time his relationship with the local Tories became strained and upon announcing his resignation Mr Simmonds bemoaned the 'intolerable' impact of trying to live with his family on the pay and expenses he received - something that caused a fair bit of a stir in the national press. He was offered a full interview to explain his comments to the electorate and chose not to bother. His replacement on the Tory ticket is the Daily Telegraph head of technology Matt Warman. In the circumstances an articulate and sensible fresh face might well do the Tories good. Those that would've voted for Mark Simmonds won't be put off by Matt Warman and some of those who had drifted away will return. Warman himself will benefit from having to win his nomination through a party primary, a good chance to sharpen his campaigning skills.

Packed field
It's easy to see this as a Tory-UKIP scrap but it's not. It's a nine-strong field which is bound to complicate matters. Labour's Paul Kenny is fighting for the third time. He'll be buoyed by the fact that in 1997 and 2001 this was a Labour/Tory marginal where the majority was below 1,000. He himself performed well as mayor, particularly prominently in the aftermath of the floods which hit the town in late 2013, and may have an appeal beyond the party as a result.

UKIP itself must contend with the challenge of Chris Pain. He led the party in Lincolnshire to its county council success before a bitter fallout with Farage and co which also saw other UKIP councillors leave the party. Chris Pain stood in 2010 for UKIP and is now under the banner of An Independence From Europe, itself launched by ex-UKIP member Mike Nattrass. The split had little or no impact in last year's Euro elections but it might eat into Robin Hunter-Clarke's vote here. Independent Peter Johnson, a former policeman, might well dilute the vote available to UKIP, occupying a 'none of the above' 'common sense' ground that the eurosceptic party likes to try to sit within.

The Tories may well lose some votes to Lyn Luxton. She wanted to win the party's nomination and, when not chosen to contest the primary, switched to the Lincolnshire Independents before founding her own Pilgrim Party. She'd done a lot of canvassing on the ground before being snubbed by the Tories and will hope that now bears fruit.

Victoria Percival promises to be a passionate exponent of the Green cause - and might surprise a few - while the BNP's Robert West is an often controversial character who is a veteran of various elections over the years.

Don't expect too much from the Lib Dem though. David Watts is the party's contender but you'd think he'll probably be busy defending his seat on Broxtowe Borough Council. Broxtowe, where I'm originally from incidentally, is run by a Lib-Lab coalition so it'll be a tight race. His selection shouts 'paper candidate' to me.

A close call
The electoral past of the last couple of years points towards UKIP doing very well but it's clear that some of the facts make this a far-from-straightforward seat to call. The circumstances of the vote - on the same day as the council election - the fact there are nine contenders with their own personal strengths and the existence of other issues affecting voters' choices beyond immigration all make for a much more complex picture. If the bookies know anything - and you don't often see a poor one - they reckon the Tories are now favourites again. All I know for sure is that it could be a long and dramatic night next Thursday. See you there.